BizarroMath™ Sports Analysis System | FAQ | The Numbers | Last Updated: 22:02 on Saturday, August 20, 2022

The Numbers

This page explains how to interpret the data on the team pages.

National Average Data

The first box of data on each team page is the same: national average data for all games played in the season between Division 1 teams. Games involving non-FBS teams are disregarded. During the early part of the season, data from the prior year is blended. The righthand-most column shows the blended national average data (and how much it has been adjusted from raw current year data) used for opponent adjustments.

Unit Statistics

Similar to national average data, unit statistics in three categories (PPG, YPG, and YPP) are provided on both offense and defense. The prior year raw and opponent-adjusted data are provided (with the difference in parens). Then the current year raw and opponent-adjusted stats are shown (with the difference in parens), followed by the blended data. During the early part of the season, the blended data is priamrily last year's data. Once we're about halfway through conference play, the system stops using last year's data, and the blended column is just this year's data.

Home Field Advantage.

This is the only number I did not derive. The data I have is from a Vegas oddsmaker. It rarely has sany meaningful impact on the projections, but people care deeply about it and everybody is convincd their stadium is a huge advantage. So it's here.

Schedule Analysis

For each game (where I have data), the system projects expected points scored and given up, the resulting point differential, and the projected chances of winning. These numbers will change week over week (even for previously played games) to reflect the actual performance of each team and its opponents. The actual outcome and team record during the season are also provided for comparison.

Season Analysis.

The system predicts the odds of each team's possible total record at year's end. The "Agg. Max." column represents the cumulative chance of the team maxing out below that record. For example, if a team has a 48.22% chance of 9-3, that means there's a 48.22% that the team does not reach 9-3. By contrast, the "Agg. Min." column represents the cumulative chance of the team being at least that good. Thus, if a team has an "Agg. Min." of 25.74% at 10-2, then there is a 25.74% chance that it finishes 10-2 or better.

Post-Season Analysis

Post-season analysis data is provided on a limited basis for Big 10 teams only. This is purely homerism on my part. My favorite team is a Big 10 team and I want to see the data. I'll try to expand this to the other conferences in the future, but coding the logic for tie-breakers is a major pain in the ass.