BizarroMath™ Sports Analysis System |
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Last Updated: 02:00 on Sunday, November 26, 2023
Toledo 2023 Season Summary
National Average Data
| Category
| 2022 Raw
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Blended (Δ)
|
| Points Per Game (PPG) |
27.17 |
26.72 |
26.72 (+0.00) |
| Yards Per Game (YPG) |
386.24 |
380.24 |
380.24 (+0.00) |
| Yards Per Play (YPP) |
5.64 |
5.71 |
5.71 (+0.00) |
Toledo 2023 - Unit Statistics
Offense
| Category
| 2022 Raw
| 2022 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Blended (Δ)
|
|---|
| Points Scored per Game (PPG): |
31.67 |
26.65 (-5.02) |
32.00 |
25.96 (-6.04) |
25.96 (+0.00) |
| Yards Gained per Game (YPG): |
403.00 |
368.37 (-34.63) |
409.36 |
375.06 (-34.31) |
375.06 (+0.00) |
| Yards Gained per Play (YPP): |
5.67 |
5.05 (-0.62) |
6.75 |
6.19 (-0.56) |
6.19 (+0.00) |
Defense
| Category
| 2022 Raw
| 2022 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Blended (Δ)
|
|---|
| Points Yielded per Game (PPG): |
27.67 |
34.40 (+6.73) |
22.00 |
29.68 (+7.68) |
29.68 (+0.00) |
| Yards Yielded per Game (YPG): |
350.17 |
402.21 (+52.05) |
326.73 |
404.99 (+78.27) |
404.99 (+0.00) |
| Yards Yielded per Play (YPP): |
4.91 |
5.66 (+0.75) |
5.06 |
5.79 (+0.73) |
5.79 (+0.00) |
Intangibles
| Category
| Measure(s)
|
| Home Field Advantage
| +2.7 |
Schedule Analysis
| Date
| Opponent
| BizMa Points For
| BizMa Points Against
| BizMa Spread
| BizMa O/U
| BizMa Win %
| Real Outcome
| Team Record
|
| 2023-09-02 |
@Illinois |
29.02 |
34.30 |
+5.28 |
63.32 |
41.53% |
L 28-30 |
0-1 |
| 2023-09-09 |
Texas Southern |
Non-FBS Opponent |
W 71-3 |
1-1 |
| 2023-09-16 |
San José State |
28.50 |
31.19 |
+2.69 |
59.68 |
45.68% |
W 21-17 |
2-1 |
| 2023-09-23 |
Western Michigan |
44.85 |
24.72 |
-20.12 |
69.57 |
82.28% |
W 49-31 |
3-1 |
| 2023-09-30 |
Northern Illinois |
34.08 |
22.19 |
-11.89 |
56.26 |
69.07% |
W 35-33 |
4-1 |
| 2023-10-07 |
@UMass |
44.21 |
26.59 |
-17.62 |
70.80 |
78.25% |
W 41-24 |
5-1 |
| 2023-10-14 |
@Ball State |
30.57 |
12.70 |
-17.87 |
43.27 |
78.66% |
W 13-6 |
6-1 |
| 2023-10-21 |
@Miami (OH) |
22.65 |
21.21 |
-1.44 |
43.87 |
52.31% |
W 21-17 |
7-1 |
| 2023-10-31 |
Buffalo |
35.72 |
16.14 |
-19.58 |
51.86 |
81.41% |
W 31-13 |
8-1 |
| 2023-11-09 |
Eastern Michigan |
34.78 |
11.09 |
-23.69 |
45.87 |
87.99% |
W 49-23 |
9-1 |
| 2023-11-15 |
@Bowling Green |
28.93 |
25.43 |
-3.50 |
54.36 |
55.61% |
W 32-31 |
10-1 |
| 2023-11-24 |
@Central Michigan |
36.76 |
21.71 |
-15.06 |
58.47 |
74.15% |
W 32-17 |
11-1 |
Season Analysis
| Record
| Probability
| Ceiling
| Floor
|
| 11-1 |
100.00% |
0.00% |
100.00% |
Expected Wins Analysis
| Record
| Probability
|
| 2-10 |
0.00% |
| 3-9 |
0.05% |
| 4-8 |
0.36% |
| 5-7 |
1.90% |
| 6-6 |
6.74% |
| 7-5 |
15.60% |
| 8-4 |
24.67% |
| 9-3 |
26.08% |
| 10-2 |
17.14% |
| 11-1 |
6.41% |
| 12-0 |
1.05% |