| Wk | Date | Opponent | Proj | Win% | Result | LINE / OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08/30 | @Kentucky | -2.8 | 54% | L 16-24 (0-1) | +10.0 ✓ / 48 U |
| 2 | 09/06 | vsWestern Kentucky | -14.0 | 73% | W 45-21 (1-1) | -8.5 ✓ / 58 O |
| 3 | 09/13 | vsMorgan State | - | - | W 60-0 (2-1) | -33.5 ✓ / 54 O |
| 4 | 09/20 | @Western Michigan | -5.7 | 59% | L 13-14 (2-2) | -13.5 ✗ / 48 U |
| 5 | 09/27 | vsAkron | -25.7 | 91% | W 45-3 (3-2) | -21.5 ✓ / 50 U |
| 6 | IDLE | |||||
| 7 | 10/11 | @Bowling Green | -15.8 | 75% | L 23-28 (3-3) | -10.5 ✗ / 46 O |
| 8 | 10/18 | vsKent State | -24.8 | 90% | W 45-10 (4-3) | -25.5 ✓ / 48 O |
| 9 | 10/25 | @Washington State | +0.8 | 49% | L 7-28 (4-4) | -1.5 ✗ / 44 U |
| 10 | IDLE | |||||
| 11 | 11/06 | vsNorthern Illinois | -21.7 | 85% | W 42-3 (5-4) | -14.5 ✓ / 42 O |
| 12 | 11/13 | @Miami (OH) | -9.3 | 65% | W 24-3 (6-4) | -6.5 ✓ / 44 U |
| 13 | 11/22 | vsBall State | -26.4 | 92% | W 38-9 (7-4) | -29.5 ✗ / 46 O |
| 14 | 11/29 | @Central Michigan | -11.7 | 69% | W 21-3 (8-4) | -11.5 ✓ / 46 U |
| POST | 12/23 | @Louisville | +3.9 | 44% | L 22-27 (8-5) | +12.5 ✓ / 44 O |
| Unit | Raw | Adj | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPG | 27.8 | 26.7 | -1.1 |
| Offense YPG | 393.4 | 390.6 | -2.8 |
| Offense YPP | 6.27 | 6.23 | -0.04 |
| Defense PPG | 13.9 | 19.9 | +6.0 |
| Defense YPG | 279.4 | 328.6 | +49.2 |
| Defense YPP | 4.54 | 5.04 | +0.49 |
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mean (Current) | -5.4 | 118 |
| Median (Current) | -4.6 | 101 |
| Mean (Historical) | -6.8 | 121 |
| Median (Historical) | -6.5 | 110 |
If Toledo replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?
Model a game Toledo isn't playing this year. Who would win?
How would Toledo do with another team's schedule?