Western Kentucky

BMPR #118 AP NR Coaches NR 2-4 Conference USA
Season TimelineCurrent
Power Rating
-11.9
Rank #118 (T)
Offense (Adj PPG)
21.9
Rank #100
Defense (Adj PPG)
33.9
Rank #120
Actual Record
2-4
All games played
Projected Wins
4.8
6 games remaining
Expected Wins
2.4
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentPROJ / OUWin%ResultVEGAS ODDS
109/06@Nevada logoNevada+8.8 / 53.936%L 14-49 (0-1)-1.5 ✗ / 51.5 O
209/12@#3 Georgia logoGeorgia+40.5 / 60.10%L 20-70 (0-2)+40.5 ✗ / 55.5 O
309/19@#1 Indiana logoIndiana+40.7 / 55.90%L 0-38 (0-3)+44.5 ✓ / 59.5 U
409/26vsMercyhurst--W 52-7 (1-3)-39.5 ✓ / 58.5 O
510/02@New Mexico State logoNew Mexico State+2.3 / 50.946%L 13-34 (1-4)+1.5 ✗ / 56.0 U
610/08vsMissouri State logoMissouri State-6.0 / 53.260%W 34-13 (2-4)+1.5 ✓ / 56.5 U
710/15@Sam Houston logoSam Houston-4.1 / 54.057%--1.5 / 52.5
8IDLE
910/27vsDelaware logoDelaware-2.3 / 56.454%--
1011/07@Middle Tennessee logoMiddle Tennessee-1.7 / 52.453%--
1111/14vsJacksonville State logoJacksonville State+1.5 / 55.148%--
1211/21@Liberty logoLiberty+15.0 / 53.626%--
1311/28vsKennesaw State logoKennesaw State+1.4 / 52.248%--

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG20.921.9+1.0
Offense YPG341.8359.6+17.8
Offense YPP4.945.11+0.17
Defense PPG35.033.9-1.1
Defense YPG451.5423.8-27.7
Defense YPP7.006.55-0.45

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)-6.188
Median (Current)-9.7120
Mean (Historical)-2.848
Median (Historical)-11.5125

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If Western Kentucky replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 2-4 Expected: 2.4 wins Culture Factor: -0.4 (Neutral)
0-6
0.7%
1-5
15.4%
2-4
39.8%
3-3
34.5%
4-2
9.6%
5-1
0.0%

Projected Wins

Projected Wins
4.8
2-10
1.9%
3-9
11.1%
4-8
26.0%
5-7
31.7%
6-6
21.1%
7-5
7.2%
8-4
0.9%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game Western Kentucky isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would Western Kentucky do with another team's schedule?