UL Monroe

Wk	Date	Opponent	Proj	Win%	Result	LINE / OU
1	08/28	vsSt. Francis (PA)	-	-	W 29-0 (1-0)	-31.0 ✗ / 47 U
2	09/06	@#17 Alabama	+37.2	0%	L 0-73 (1-1)	+34.0 ✗ / 50 O
3	IDLE
4	09/21	@UTEP	+5.6	41%	W 31-25 (2-1)	+5.5 ✓ / 48 O
5	09/27	vsArkansas State	+6.7	39%	W 28-16 (3-1)	-1.5 ✓ / 56 U
6	10/04	@Northwestern	+25.0	10%	L 7-42 (3-2)	+12.5 ✗ / 44 O
7	10/11	@Coastal Carolina	+8.9	36%	L 8-23 (3-3)	-3.0 ✗ / 46 U
8	10/18	vsTroy	+10.9	33%	L 14-37 (3-4)	+4.5 ✗ / 46 O
9	10/25	@Southern Miss	+16.4	24%	L 21-49 (3-5)	+14.0 ✗ / 48 O
10	11/01	vsOld Dominion	+22.1	15%	L 6-31 (3-6)	+16.5 ✗ / 56 U
11	IDLE
12	11/15	vsSouth Alabama	+7.2	38%	L 14-26 (3-7)	+4.0 ✗ / 50 U
13	11/22	@Texas State	+22.8	13%	L 14-31 (3-8)	+20.5 ✓ / 60 U
14	11/29	@Louisiana	+13.6	28%	L 27-30 (3-9)	+10.5 ✓ / 48 O

Unit	Raw	Adj	Delta
Offense PPG	13.9	14.0	+0.1
Offense YPG	321.6	305.2	-16.5
Offense YPP	5.34	5.31	-0.02
Defense PPG	33.6	34.1	+0.5
Defense YPG	378.8	411.5	+32.7
Defense YPP	5.74	6.11	+0.37

If UL Monroe replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 3-9 Expected: 3.7 wins Culture Factor: -0.7 (Underperforming)

0-12

0.2%

1-11

4.2%

2-10

15.1%

3-9

26.2%

4-8

26.8%

5-7

17.3%

6-6

7.5%

7-5

2.2%

8-4

0.4%

9-3

0.1%

10-2

0.0%

Final Wins

0-12

0.0%

1-11

0.0%

2-10

100.0%

Entertaining Hypotheticals