Boise State

BMPR #21 AP #23 Coaches #24 5-1 Pac-12
Season TimelineCurrent
Power Rating
+12.2
Rank #21
Offense (Adj PPG)
34.4
Rank #17
Defense (Adj PPG)
22.1
Rank #35
Actual Record
5-1
All games played
Projected Wins
8.9
5 games remaining
Expected Wins
4.0
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentPROJ / OUWin%ResultVEGAS ODDS
109/05@#10 Oregon logoOregon+8.4 / 56.037%L 27-34 (0-1)+25.0 ✓ / 51.5 O
209/12vsMemphis logoMemphis-8.0 / 61.563%W 38-20 (1-1)-9.0 ✓ / 54.5 O
309/20vsSouth Dakota--W 38-24 (2-1)-28.5 ✗ / 61.5 O
409/26@Western Michigan logoWestern Michigan-11.1 / 45.968%W 32-7 (3-1)-8.5 ✓ / 50.5 U
510/03vsUtah State logoUtah State-15.4 / 51.275%W 37-18 (4-1)-19.5 ✗ / 51.5 O
610/11@Fresno State logoFresno State-7.3 / 53.562%W 38-31 (5-1)-9.5 ✗ / 48.5 O
7IDLE
810/24@Washington State logoWashington State-12.0 / 45.969%--
911/01vsTexas State logoTexas State-21.2 / 67.584%--
1011/07@Colorado State logoColorado State-21.9 / 70.785%--
1111/14vsOregon State logoOregon State-11.1 / 59.568%--
1211/22vsSan Diego State logoSan Diego State-21.1 / 50.984%--

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG35.534.4-1.1
Offense YPG456.4412.7-43.7
Offense YPP6.166.12-0.04
Defense PPG22.022.1+0.1
Defense YPG382.5354.4-28.1
Defense YPP6.616.45-0.16

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)-2.975
Median (Current)-2.174
Mean (Historical)-0.535
Median (Historical)+1.240

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If Boise State replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 5-1 Expected: 4.0 wins Culture Factor: +1.0 (Winners Win)
0-6
0.0%
1-5
1.1%
2-4
7.2%
3-3
23.2%
4-2
35.7%
5-1
26.0%
6-0
6.9%

Projected Wins

Projected Wins
8.9
5-6
0.0%
6-5
0.8%
7-4
6.0%
8-3
23.5%
9-2
41.6%
10-1
28.0%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game Boise State isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would Boise State do with another team's schedule?