San Diego State

#50 9-4 Mountain West
Historical View Current
Power Rating
+4.0
Rank #50
Offense (Adj PPG)
22.6
Rank #94
Defense (Adj PPG)
18.5
Rank #16
Actual Record
9-4
All games played
Final Record
9-4
Season complete
Expected Wins
8.3
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentProjWin%ResultLINE / OU
108/29vsStony Brook--W 42-0 (1-0)-19.5 ✓ / 54 U
209/07@Washington State+3.045%L 13-36 (1-1)+2.0 ✗ / 46 O
3IDLE
409/21vsCalifornia-11.068%W 34-0 (2-1)+14.0 ✓ / 48 U
509/27@Northern Illinois-13.472%W 6-3 (3-1)-1.5 ✓ / 42 U
610/04vsColorado State-16.977%W 45-24 (4-1)-4.5 ✓ / 40 O
710/12@Nevada-11.669%W 44-10 (5-1)-6.5 ✓ / 42 O
8IDLE
910/25@Fresno State-3.656%W 23-0 (6-1)-3.0 ✓ / 46 U
1011/01vsWyoming-14.273%W 24-7 (7-1)-10.0 ✓ / 42 U
1111/09@Hawai'i-2.754%L 6-38 (7-2)-6.5 ✗ / 48 U
1211/16vsBoise State-1.252%W 17-7 (8-2)-1.5 ✓ / 42 U
1311/23vsSan José State-18.980%W 25-3 (9-2)-10.0 ✓ / 50 U
1411/28@New Mexico+0.150%L 17-23 (9-3)-1.5 ✗ / 42 U
POST12/27vs#22 North Texas+3.844%L 47-49 (9-4)+7.5 ✓ / 56 O

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG25.422.6-2.7
Offense YPG362.1350.6-11.6
Offense YPP5.865.67-0.19
Defense PPG17.118.5+1.4
Defense YPG313.2313.0-0.2
Defense YPP4.734.93+0.20

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)-3.398
Median (Current)-3.293
Mean (Historical)-3.288
Median (Historical)-3.993

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If San Diego State replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 9-4 Expected: 8.3 wins Culture Factor: +0.7 (Winners Win)
1-12
0.0%
2-11
0.0%
3-10
0.2%
4-9
0.8%
5-8
3.4%
6-7
8.8%
7-6
16.8%
8-5
23.2%
9-4
22.5%
10-3
15.2%
11-2
6.9%
12-1
1.8%
13-0
0.3%

Final Record

Final Wins
9
5-8
0.0%
6-7
0.0%
7-6
0.0%
8-5
100.0%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game San Diego State isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would San Diego State do with another team's schedule?