Air Force

BMPR #78 AP NR Coaches NR 4-1 Mountain West
Season TimelineCurrent
Power Rating
-2.3
Rank #78
Offense (Adj PPG)
26.5
Rank #63
Defense (Adj PPG)
28.8
Rank #91
Actual Record
4-1
All games played
Projected Wins
7.9
7 games remaining
Expected Wins
3.2
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentPROJ / OUWin%ResultVEGAS ODDS
109/05vsDuquesne--W 34-0 (1-0)-28.5 ✓ / 57.5 U
209/13vsNorth Dakota State logoNorth Dakota State+4.7 / 47.842%L 32-38 (1-1)+1.5 ✗ / 48.5 O
3IDLE
409/27@Nevada logoNevada-0.6 / 54.051%W 36-33 (2-1)-4.5 ✗ / 50.5 O
510/03vsNavy logoNavy-4.7 / 52.658%W 14-9 (3-1)-3.0 ✓ / 45.0 U
610/10@Northern Illinois logoNorthern Illinois-13.4 / 45.971%W 28-7 (4-1)-7.0 ✓ / 48.5 U
710/17vsUNLV logoUNLV+0.6 / 52.249%-+2.5 / 47.5
810/24@Wyoming logoWyoming-7.9 / 40.263%--
910/31vsUConn logoUConn-3.0 / 62.055%--
1011/08@Army logoArmy+2.4 / 50.046%--
1111/15vsSan Jose State logoSan Jose State-8.2 / 48.963%--
1211/21vsUTEP logoUTEP-23.1 / 57.987%--
1311/28@New Mexico logoNew Mexico+14.4 / 54.527%--

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG24.626.5+1.9
Offense YPG352.4374.6+22.3
Offense YPP5.065.55+0.49
Defense PPG21.228.8+7.5
Defense YPG338.1387.0+48.9
Defense YPP6.416.89+0.48

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)-7.597
Median (Current)-4.586
Mean (Historical)-10.8115
Median (Historical)-6.594

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If Air Force replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 4-1 Expected: 3.2 wins Culture Factor: +0.8 (Winners Win)
0-5
0.2%
1-4
4.1%
2-3
20.3%
3-2
37.2%
4-1
29.6%
5-0
8.6%

Projected Wins

Projected Wins
7.9
4-8
0.2%
5-7
2.2%
6-6
10.5%
7-5
24.5%
8-4
31.2%
9-3
22.3%
10-2
7.9%
11-1
1.2%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game Air Force isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would Air Force do with another team's schedule?