Navy

BMPR #82 AP NR Coaches NR 2-3 American Athletic
Season TimelineCurrent
Power Rating
-3.7
Rank #82
Offense (Adj PPG)
23.4
Rank #88
Defense (Adj PPG)
27.0
Rank #78
Actual Record
2-3
All games played
Projected Wins
5.0
7 games remaining
Expected Wins
3.1
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentPROJ / OUWin%ResultVEGAS ODDS
109/05vsTowson--W 42-15 (1-0)-30.5 ✗ / 50.5 O
209/12@Florida Atlantic logoFlorida Atlantic-2.8 / 60.254%L 30-38 (1-1)-4.5 ✗ / 59.5 O
3IDLE
409/25@UAB logoUAB-6.1 / 49.760%L 20-24 (1-2)-6.5 ✗ / 50.0 U
510/03@Air Force logoAir Force+4.7 / 52.642%L 9-14 (1-3)+3.0 ✗ / 45.0 U
610/10vsTulsa logoTulsa-6.5 / 49.160%W 34-26 (2-3)-3.0 ✓ / 47.5 O
710/18@UTSA logoUTSA+5.6 / 54.841%-+6.5 / 55.5
810/24vsNorth Texas logoNorth Texas+7.9 / 67.737%--
910/31vs#2 Notre Dame logoNotre Dame+29.8 / 56.12%--
1011/07vsTemple logoTemple-4.7 / 51.558%--
11IDLE
1211/21vsMemphis logoMemphis+9.4 / 55.535%--
1311/28@Charlotte logoCharlotte-17.8 / 46.279%--
14IDLE
1512/12@Army logoArmy+2.4 / 43.746%--2.5 / 37.5

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG23.623.4-0.3
Offense YPG358.0377.5+19.5
Offense YPP5.846.14+0.30
Defense PPG27.827.0-0.7
Defense YPG362.0368.6+6.6
Defense YPP5.875.94+0.07

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)-4.782
Median (Current)-4.284
Mean (Historical)-15.4137
Median (Historical)-13.3133

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If Navy replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 2-3 Expected: 3.1 wins Culture Factor: -1.1 (Underperforming)
0-5
0.2%
1-4
4.9%
2-3
21.4%
3-2
37.0%
4-1
28.5%
5-0
8.0%

Projected Wins

Projected Wins
5.0
2-10
1.2%
3-9
8.9%
4-8
24.4%
5-7
32.6%
6-6
23.2%
7-5
8.4%
8-4
1.3%
9-3
0.0%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game Navy isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would Navy do with another team's schedule?