Florida Atlantic

BMPR #107 AP NR Coaches NR 4-1 American Athletic
Season TimelineCurrent
Power Rating
-9.1
Rank #107
Offense (Adj PPG)
26.5
Rank #63
Defense (Adj PPG)
35.7
Rank #128
Actual Record
4-1
All games played
Projected Wins
6.7
7 games remaining
Expected Wins
2.7
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentPROJ / OUWin%ResultVEGAS ODDS
109/05@Florida logoFlorida+22.4 / 71.814%L 21-66 (0-1)+26.5 ✗ / 59.5 O
209/12vsNavy logoNavy+2.8 / 60.246%W 38-30 (1-1)+4.5 ✓ / 59.5 O
309/19vsFlorida International logoFlorida International+0.7 / 54.149%W 16-10 (2-1)-5.0 ✓ / 62.0 U
409/27@UL Monroe logoUL Monroe-12.8 / 61.270%W 45-17 (3-1)-11.5 ✓ / 58.5 O
510/03vsTexas Southern--W 66-10 (4-1)-44.0 ✓ / 61.5 O
6IDLE
710/17@Army logoArmy+8.2 / 56.237%-+3.0 / 56.5
810/24vsRice logoRice-7.8 / 56.863%--
910/29@North Texas logoNorth Texas+20.1 / 81.118%--
1011/06vsUTSA logoUTSA+6.6 / 66.239%--
1111/14@Tulsa logoTulsa+3.5 / 59.744%--
1211/21vsSouth Florida logoSouth Florida+10.6 / 58.433%--
1311/27@East Carolina logoEast Carolina+11.2 / 59.932%--

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG29.026.5-2.5
Offense YPG448.5405.5-43.0
Offense YPP5.925.50-0.42
Defense PPG33.635.7+2.0
Defense YPG460.2428.6-31.7
Defense YPP6.446.55+0.11

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)-5.785
Median (Current)-2.878
Mean (Historical)-11.7122
Median (Historical)-6.392

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If Florida Atlantic replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 4-1 Expected: 2.7 wins Culture Factor: +1.3 (Winners Win)
0-5
0.3%
1-4
8.2%
2-3
31.2%
3-2
39.7%
4-1
18.5%
5-0
2.0%

Projected Wins

Projected Wins
6.7
4-8
3.1%
5-7
14.8%
6-6
28.5%
7-5
29.4%
8-4
17.4%
9-3
5.7%
10-2
1.0%
11-1
0.1%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game Florida Atlantic isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would Florida Atlantic do with another team's schedule?