Northwestern

BMPR #22 AP #25 Coaches NR 4-1 Big Ten
Season TimelineCurrent
Power Rating
+12.1
Rank #22 (T)
Offense (Adj PPG)
30.9
Rank #35
Defense (Adj PPG)
18.8
Rank #19
Actual Record
4-1
All games played
Projected Wins
8.0
7 games remaining
Expected Wins
3.5
Based on ratings

Schedule

WkDateOpponentPROJ / OUWin%ResultVEGAS ODDS
109/06vsSouth Dakota State--W 34-18 (1-0)-14.0 ✓ / 49.5 O
2IDLE
309/19vsColorado logoColorado-18.8 / 42.180%W 41-7 (2-0)-3.5 ✓ / 47.5 O
409/26@#1 Indiana logoIndiana+16.5 / 43.524%L 23-29 (2-1)+20.5 ✓ / 49.5 O
510/03vs#24 Penn State logoPenn State-2.3 / 47.054%W 34-13 (3-1)+3.0 ✓ / 46.5 O
610/10vsBall State logoBall State-35.3 / 52.8100%W 45-14 (4-1)-35.0 ✗ / 53.0 O
710/17@Michigan State logoMichigan State-8.3 / 46.663%--9.5 / 47.5
810/24vsRutgers logoRutgers-23.5 / 57.988%--
910/31@#10 Oregon logoOregon+7.1 / 49.139%--
1011/07vs#15 Iowa logoIowa+0.4 / 43.349%--
1111/14@#5 Ohio State logoOhio State+14.3 / 46.427%--
1211/21@Minnesota logoMinnesota-9.4 / 44.665%--
1311/28vsIllinois logoIllinois-11.6 / 53.269%-+3.5 / 52.5

Unit Breakdown

UnitRawAdjDelta
Offense PPG29.130.9+1.7
Offense YPG364.0390.7+26.7
Offense YPP6.026.25+0.23
Defense PPG22.518.8-3.7
Defense YPG386.0349.7-36.3
Defense YPP6.195.68-0.51

Strength of Schedule

MetricValueRank
Mean (Current)+2.436
Median (Current)+2.151
Mean (Historical)-3.051
Median (Historical)-4.075

View full SOS rankings

Expected Wins (Retrospective)

If Northwestern replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?

Actual: 4-1 Expected: 3.5 wins Culture Factor: +0.5 (Neutral)
0-5
0.0%
1-4
0.3%
2-3
8.7%
3-2
38.9%
4-1
42.6%
5-0
9.6%

Projected Wins

Projected Wins
8.0
4-8
0.1%
5-7
1.7%
6-6
8.7%
7-5
22.9%
8-4
32.2%
9-3
24.2%
10-2
9.0%
11-1
1.2%

Entertaining Hypotheticals

Fantasy Matchup

Model a game Northwestern isn't playing this year. Who would win?

Schedule Swap

How would Northwestern do with another team's schedule?