| Wk | Date | Opponent | PROJ / OU | Win% | Result | VEGAS ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09/05 | vs Toledo | -4.5 / 51.2 | 57% | W 30-20 (1-0) | -10.0 P / 48.5 O |
| 2 | 09/12 | vs Eastern Michigan | -17.4 / 50.7 | 78% | W 35-7 (2-0) | -17.5 ✓ / 50.0 U |
| 3 | 09/19 | @#2  Notre Dame | +27.2 / 53.9 | 6% | L 10-27 (2-1) | +29.0 ✓ / 51.5 U |
| 4 | 09/26 | vs#14  Nebraska | +10.8 / 52.7 | 33% | L 13-31 (2-2) | +6.0 ✗ / 48.5 U |
| 5 | 10/03 | @ Wisconsin | +9.5 / 40.6 | 35% | L 3-31 (2-3) | +8.5 ✗ / 43.5 U |
| 6 | 10/10 | vs Illinois | +0.3 / 52.7 | 49% | L 37-38 (2-4) | +2.5 ✓ / 48.0 O |
| 7 | 10/17 | vs#22  Northwestern | +8.3 / 46.6 | 37% | - | +9.5 / 47.5 |
| 8 | 10/24 | @ UCLA | +12.3 / 50.8 | 30% | - | - |
| 9 | IDLE | |||||
| 10 | 11/07 | @ Michigan | +10.9 / 42.9 | 33% | - | +16.5 / 50.5 |
| 11 | 11/14 | vs Washington | +2.2 / 46.3 | 47% | - | - |
| 12 | 11/21 | vs#10  Oregon | +13.6 / 50.1 | 28% | - | - |
| 13 | 11/28 | @ Rutgers | -6.2 / 56.7 | 60% | - | - |
| Unit | Raw | Adj | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPG | 22.9 | 24.7 | +1.8 |
| Offense YPG | 324.9 | 355.5 | +30.6 |
| Offense YPP | 5.06 | 5.34 | +0.28 |
| Defense PPG | 25.2 | 24.1 | -1.1 |
| Defense YPG | 352.5 | 332.0 | -20.5 |
| Defense YPP | 5.79 | 5.56 | -0.23 |
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mean (Current) | +6.9 | 10 |
| Median (Current) | +8.4 | 21 |
| Mean (Historical) | +6.8 | 5 |
| Median (Historical) | +6.0 | 19 |
If Michigan State replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?
Model a game Michigan State isn't playing this year. Who would win?
How would Michigan State do with another team's schedule?