| Wk | Date | Opponent | PROJ / OU | Win% | Result | VEGAS ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09/05 | @ Michigan State | +4.5 / 51.2 | 43% | L 20-30 (0-1) | +10.0 P / 48.5 O |
| 2 | 09/12 | vsCentral Connecticut | - | - | W 63-10 (1-1) | -36.5 ✓ / 52.5 O |
| 3 | 09/19 | vs Temple | -6.7 / 56.5 | 61% | W 49-48 (2-1) | -5.0 ✗ / 48.5 O |
| 4 | 09/26 | vs San Diego State | -8.5 / 48.9 | 64% | W 41-16 (3-1) | -2.5 ✓ / 50.5 O |
| 5 | 10/03 | @ Ball State | -17.9 / 55.3 | 79% | W 39-24 (4-1) | -20.5 ✗ / 52.5 O |
| 6 | 10/10 | vs Buffalo | -11.2 / 52.3 | 68% | L 8-23 (4-2) | -19.0 ✗ / 55.5 U |
| 7 | 10/17 | @ Eastern Michigan | -10.7 / 56.4 | 67% | - | -4.5 / 52.5 |
| 8 | 10/24 | vs Western Michigan | -3.1 / 43.9 | 55% | - | - |
| 9 | IDLE | |||||
| 10 | 11/04 | @ Sacramento State | -25.4 / 51.8 | 91% | - | - |
| 11 | 11/11 | vs Massachusetts | -21.7 / 52.0 | 85% | - | - |
| 12 | 11/21 | vs Bowling Green | -15.1 / 50.3 | 74% | - | - |
| 13 | 11/27 | @ Ohio | -1.6 / 53.1 | 53% | - | - |
| Unit | Raw | Adj | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPG | 30.0 | 26.6 | -3.4 |
| Offense YPG | 409.8 | 392.3 | -17.4 |
| Offense YPP | 6.50 | 6.13 | -0.38 |
| Defense PPG | 19.5 | 28.3 | +8.8 |
| Defense YPG | 344.9 | 391.1 | +46.3 |
| Defense YPP | 4.92 | 5.69 | +0.77 |
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mean (Current) | -13.6 | 137 |
| Median (Current) | -11.9 | 132 |
| Mean (Historical) | -12.3 | 126 |
| Median (Historical) | -10.3 | 120 |
If Toledo replayed this schedule with current unit ratings, how would they do?
Model a game Toledo isn't playing this year. Who would win?
How would Toledo do with another team's schedule?